Chemistry
FDX-BRIEF-001
LFP vs. NMC: The Cost-Performance Crossover and What It Means for Western OEM Sourcing
The chemistry debate at the pack level is largely resolved. The sourcing decision is not.
Fifth-generation LFP cells from CATL and BYD have closed the energy density gap against NMC to within 10% at the pack level while maintaining a 30% cost advantage per kWh. This brief maps the crossover point, assesses what it means for European and US OEMs locked into NMC supply agreements, and examines whether IRA subsidies actually change the sourcing economics.
●Gen-5 LFP energy density benchmarks versus NMC811 at pack level
●OEM supply contract requalification timelines and cost implications
●IRA FEOC restrictions and their effect on LFP sourcing from China
●Which OEMs are quietly requalifying toward LFP and which are committed to NMC
Competitive
FDX-BRIEF-002
CATL vs. BYD: Third-Party Supplier vs. Vertical Integrator — Which Model Wins Through 2030?
Two companies control 55% of the global battery market. They are pursuing fundamentally opposite strategies.
CATL's third-party supplier model gives it revenue diversification and OEM breadth but creates dependency on customer relationships it does not control. BYD's vertical integration gives it cost control and iteration speed but concentrates risk in its own vehicle sales. This brief assesses which model is better positioned through the next chemistry and capacity cycle.
●Cost per kWh comparison at equivalent scale: CATL vs. BYD cell-level
●Customer concentration risk: what happens when a major OEM dual-sources away from CATL
●BYD's external supply ambitions and the CATL competitive response
●International expansion credibility: Hungary, Spain, Indonesia
Technology
FDX-BRIEF-003
Solid-State Battery Commercialisation: Separating Credible Timelines from Conference Hype
Toyota, Samsung SDI, and QuantumScape are not on the same path. This brief maps who is actually credible.
CIBF 2026 declared solid-state batteries commercially real. That is not wrong. It is also not the whole picture. This brief assesses the commercialisation credibility of the six most-discussed solid-state programs against a common framework of pilot production evidence, electrolyte processing readiness, and OEM qualification milestone disclosure.
●Toyota, Samsung SDI, QuantumScape, CATL, LG ES, Solid Power: credibility scorecard
●Sulfide vs. oxide: which electrolyte family reaches automotive volume first
●What "pilot production" actually means across different manufacturer disclosures
●The cost gap to NMC and when it closes under credible production scenarios
Supply Chain
FDX-BRIEF-004
Gigafactory Overcapacity: Which Announced Projects Are Real and Which Will Be Quietly Cancelled
Announced gigafactory capacity through 2030 exceeds credible demand by a margin that implies significant cancellations.
Europe alone has announced more than 1,100 GWh of cell manufacturing capacity through 2030. Credible demand forecasts support less than 600 GWh. This brief assesses which projects are fully funded, which are contingent on offtake agreements that have not been signed, and which are likely to follow Northvolt into restructuring or cancellation.
●European gigafactory pipeline: funded vs. announced vs. conditional
●North American IRA-driven capacity and FEOC compliance risk
●Equipment lead times as the controlling project variable
●Which developers are most exposed to project cancellation through 2027
Regulation
FDX-BRIEF-005
EU Battery Regulation 2026: The Compliance Gap No One Is Talking About
The 2030 recycled content mandates are achievable for cobalt and nickel. They are not achievable for lithium at current processing capacity.
The EU Battery Regulation's mandatory recycled content thresholds and digital passport obligations create compliance requirements that current supply chain infrastructure cannot meet. This brief quantifies the gap by material, maps the processing capacity shortfall, and assesses what the regulatory enforcement timeline means for manufacturers planning cell chemistry transitions.
●Recycled content mandates by material: lithium, cobalt, nickel, lead
●European hydrometallurgical processing capacity versus 2030 requirement
●Battery passport Article 77 data infrastructure gap assessment
●Enforcement timeline and practical penalty exposure for non-compliance
Economics
FDX-BRIEF-006
Second-Life vs. Recycling: When Does Repurposing Beat Black Mass Recovery?
The crossover point is not fixed. It depends on chemistry, cycle history, and the state-of-health threshold your recycler will accept.
The economics of repurposing a battery for stationary storage versus sending it to a recycler depend on state-of-health at end of first life, cell chemistry, black mass commodity prices, and the cost of battery testing and reconditioning. This brief maps the crossover economics and assesses what they mean for OEM warranty and end-of-life strategy decisions.
●State-of-health crossover modelling by chemistry (LFP vs. NMC)
●Black mass commodity price sensitivity on recycling economics
●OEM warranty and liability implications of second-life programs
●Who is actually operating scaled second-life programs and at what margin